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February 22, 2010
It's put-up or shut-up time in basketball! District basketball always sees the cream rise to the top with plenty of upsets and surprise district champs. Let me throw some facts, figures, thoughts, speculation at you about the class 5 upcoming districts.
It's tough to pick an upset when the #1 seed is hosting the District. Such is the case at Poplar Bluff as the Mules Boys (17-5) will face the winner of an interesting semifinal game between #3Jackson (14-12) & #2 Cape Central (15-8). On the girls side in District 1, I'm going upset and picking the seasoned, extremely tough defensively- Jackson Indians (seed #2 17-6) to upend the Tigers(16-7).
District 2 Boys should belong to Webster Groves (24-2) but WG is only 6-2 in February. #2 SLUH (16-10) is hosting but the Jr Bills are only 6-7 since New Years. The aggressive Golden Griffins of Vianney (12-9)#3 are always tough. I'm staying with the ball-hawking, fast flying Statesman to return to STATE tourney. Nerinx Hall (15-10) received the#1 seed despite Kirkwood's 20-5 record. Mary Beth Mathias has been playing very well for the Markers while the Pioneers rely on a foursome that all average over 8 ppg. I like the speed and balance of the Pioneers. I'm going for another #2 win in this girls district also.
District 3 has the defending class 5 Champion and their super-star. Chaminade (20-5) had deadeye marksman, Bradley Beal (29.6 ppg) as they begin their trek to MIzzou Arena. Two MCC teams (CBC & DeSmet) would both like to avenge earlier season losses to the Red Devils. Chaminade isn't exactly the same team as last year. The defense has not been quite as solid as last year and the rebounding doesn't have as many real "board" men. Nevertheless, the Red Devils have only been beaten by two MIssouri teams. CBC is one of those teams! The Cadets are hosting District (but Chaminade beat CBC at CBC ...yes...CBC beat Chaminade at Chaminade...you figure that) so that may be of some help to them. DeSmet has CBC in semis so if the Cadets look to far down the road, they may get pushed off the road. A high scoring game favors Chaminade, a lower scoring game-CBC. I think CBC has a quality chance but you have stay with the Champ until they are actually beaten. Incarnate and St Joseph (two long time powerhouse programs) are in this same district. IWA has beaten the Angels earlier in the year. Seniors Jazmin Hitchens & Chloe Nelson have been outstanding all year long for the Red Knights. ST Joe is led by the Stock sisters (both soph) and 6-3 Sydney Stipanovich. Both teams have prepared by playing the best competition from all over the Midwest. I'm staying with the upper classmen.
District 4 sees Parkway South seeded #1 on girls & Boys brackets. Thomas Williams Lady Patriots are led by slick Brittany Willis at 1 guard and Kaitlin Wagner is the sharpshooter from the outside. This teams depends on many transition baskets, Wagner's bombs and Willis' drives. That formula can't be modified too much. Lafayette (17-8) from Sub West was seeded #2 over Eureka (21-2) - the conference Champions of the Sub South. The Lancers look to Jordynne Martin as their go-to person. Eureka depends upon balanced scoring. On the Boys side, the Patriots (17-9) actually finished behind #2 seed Lafayette (16-10) in the Suburban West. The Washington Bluejays bring a very quiet but impressive 17-8 record into the tournament. They could upset the entire apple-cart! PK South has lost their last 2 games (including an OT home loss to Lafayette). Meanwhile, the Lancers have won 7 in a row, I'm picking the Lancers here.
District 5 has Hazelwood Central holding the #1 seed in both brackets. The Lady Hawks seem a bit down from last year with graduation and transfers but I think that they have too much power for the other teams. In the Boys brackets, Josh Martin leads the 20-3 Hawks through a more difficult tournament. McCluer (20-4) beat the Hawks 10 days ago and the best #4 seed in the tournament (McCluer North 16-5) will get the Hawks in the Semis. This District is at McCluer North...I'm looking at Shaquille Boga leading the Comets into the State Tournament !
Mehlville hosts District 6. The Oakville Tigers (19-4) have been a real surprise to many this year. Nick Traxler has done a tremendous job at the helm and we don't see them struggling too much against this field. Cor Jesu (20-4), one of three 20-win teams in the MWAA White Division, has won 11 straight games as Meg Riley and Liz Siclair provide the inside-outside parts of the game for this team to succeed. We think Lindbergh will topple Oakville in the semis but fall to the Chargers.
Monica Tritz has worked hard to upgrade the skills and schedule of Ft Zumwalt West Lady Jaguars (20-5). The Jags knocked off the#2 seed Ft Zumwalt South Bulldogs (21-4) by double digits earlier in the year. We look for the Jags to do it again. Meanwhile, Francis Howell (14-9) received the votes to be the # 1 Boys team based on their 8 game winning streak and their win over #2 seen Ft Z West. Overlooked most of the year, the Vikings came stumbling out of the chute with a 3-8 record and have been 11-1 since that time. Brian McVicar averages 16.5 ppg for the Vikings but has received little acclaim to this point. I was leaning to the Jags until they seem to have lost some confidence in their final four games (gone 1-3) so I'm sailing with the Viking.
District 8 is hosted by Parkway West. Coach Bill Sodemann has developed a Boys team (15-5) that should be able to handle the challenges of a young, improving Marquette squad and a solid Parkway North team (17-7). Pattonville (15-8) is seeded #1 in the Girls bracket. The Pirates only have 3 wins over .500+ teams. The #5 seed, Parkway West knocked them off recently ! This one is really wide open! I'm choosing Howell North (12-12) to beat Parkway North in semis and sink the Pirates in the finals.
Rock Bridge Boys & Girls earned the #1 seed in District 9 at Troy. The Boys have two good teams (HIckman 15-7 and #3 Troy) but should prevail with their deep bench to supplement their starters. On the Girls Side, its Amaya Willilams (Bruins star guard) versus Maggie Flynn (troy) as the main headliners. I think the Bruins experience, swarming defense will negate the Trojans height inside and both Bruin teams will advance.
District 10 has Jefferson City holding the #1 seeds. A tougher schedule that has toughened this team, will push the Lady Jays through the District. On the Boys side, the Jays main opposition will be the Waynesville Tigers. Again, I like the Jays to advance.
District 11 is the toughest district of all the Districtsin MIssouri--Boys and Girls. All six Boys teams have records over .500, Ozark is seeded 4 with a 18-4 record. So who's #1-- Branson Pirates at 20-2. The Nixa Eagles are 25-1. What a super district championship that game will be! I've been going with many #2 seeds and I'll do the same again -- Eagles to fly with the District Boys Trophy. The Girls also have every team holding a .500+ record. NIxa received the votes for #1 at 20-3. Kickapoo is 15-6 and both teams have played terrific schedules. I'm staying with Nixa...thinking that they'll win both titles!
Of the other four Girls Districts, I like Blue Springs (17-3) to advance through District and deep into tournament. Lee SUmmit and LIberty are capable of moving down the road also.
The Boys teams to watch from District 12-16 are Ray Pec (17-7) seeded #1 at Rockhurts (can they beat #2 Rockhurst at home?) I don't think so! Liberty (16-5) and HIllcrest (18-7) both have very solid teams and should be watch closely.
Prepcasts will have 8 district Championships (from 4 sites) on www.prepcasts.com on Friday night and two on Saturday. Listen LIVE...bounce back and forth from one game to another! or LISTEN LATER !
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